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Scottish Premiership · Scottish Premiership 26/27 Model vnext-shadow-2026-10 · locked 333.2h before kickoff

Hibernian vs Dundee FC

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Hibernian host Dundee FC in Scottish Premiership. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Hibernian collected 4 points (1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses). Dundee FC earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Hibernian have 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Dundee FC have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Hibernian average 1.42 xG and 1.25 xGA over 5 recent matches; Dundee FC average 1.49 xG and 1.79 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Hibernian in position 10 and Dundee FC in position 5. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

44.5%Home
26.8%Draw
28.7%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 44.5%

Total goals

52.8%Over 2.5
47.2%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

56.7%Yes
43.3%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Hibernian 5/5, Dundee FC 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Scottish Premiership page →
Hibernian
Position#10
Points11
Played12
Goal difference-2
Dundee FC
Position#5
Points17
Played12
Goal difference+3

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Hibernian

LLLDW
0.80Points / match
1.40Goals / match
1.42xG / match
1.25xGA / match
VS

Dundee FC

WDLWL
1.40Points / match
1.80Goals / match
1.49xG / match
1.79xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Hibernian at home
W-D-L0-1-4
Points / match0.20
Goals / match0.80
xG / match1.40
Dundee FC away
W-D-L2-0-3
Points / match1.20
Goals / match1.40
xG / match1.12

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Hibernian

10 Oct17 Oct25 Oct28 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

Dundee FC

10 Oct17 Oct24 Oct28 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Hibernian expected goals

1.57

Dundee FC expected goals

1.22
1–112.8%
2–19.2%
1–08.6%
2–07.6%
0–07.2%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Hibernian

07 NovWA · AberdeenxG 2.41 · xGA 0.964–028 OctDA · St. MirrenxG 1.36 · xGA 1.721–125 OctLH · CelticxG 1.19 · xGA 1.151–2
17 OctLH · Falkirk FCxG 1.35 · xGA 0.761–2
10 OctLA · Dundee UnitedxG 0.77 · xGA 1.680–1

Dundee FC

07 NovLA · St. JohnstonexG 0.58 · xGA 1.531–228 OctWH · KilmarnockxG 2.24 · xGA 2.223–124 OctLA · St. MirrenxG 1.44 · xGA 1.411–2
17 OctDH · RangersxG 1.77 · xGA 1.802–2
10 OctWA · Falkirk FCxG 1.41 · xGA 1.972–1

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

30 Aug 2026Dundee FC — Hibernian1–2
28 Feb 2026Dundee FC — Hibernian3–3
22 Nov 2025Hibernian — Dundee FC2–0
03 Aug 2025Dundee FC — Hibernian1–2
13 Apr 2025Hibernian — Dundee FC4–0

More Scottish Premiership match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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