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Scottish Premiership · Scottish Premiership 26/27 Model vnext-shadow-2026-10 · locked 295.0h before kickoff

Dundee FC vs Heart of Midlothian

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Dundee FC host Heart of Midlothian in Scottish Premiership. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Dundee FC collected 7 points (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). Heart of Midlothian earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Dundee FC have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Heart of Midlothian have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Dundee FC average 1.49 xG and 1.79 xGA over 5 recent matches; Heart of Midlothian average 1.84 xG and 2.16 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Dundee FC in position 5 and Heart of Midlothian in position 4. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

34.2%Home
25.8%Draw
39.9%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 39.9%

Total goals

58.6%Over 2.5
41.4%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

61.9%Yes
38.1%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Dundee FC 5/5, Heart of Midlothian 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Scottish Premiership page →
Dundee FC
Position#5
Points17
Played12
Goal difference+3
Heart of Midlothian
Position#4
Points20
Played12
Goal difference+4

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Dundee FC

WDLWL
1.40Points / match
1.80Goals / match
1.49xG / match
1.79xGA / match
VS

Heart of Midlothian

WLWDL
1.40Points / match
2.40Goals / match
1.84xG / match
2.16xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Dundee FC at home
W-D-L2-2-1
Points / match1.60
Goals / match1.80
xG / match1.64
Heart of Midlothian away
W-D-L2-1-2
Points / match1.40
Goals / match1.60
xG / match1.32

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Dundee FC

10 Oct17 Oct24 Oct28 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

Heart of Midlothian

10 Oct18 Oct25 Oct28 Oct08 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Dundee FC expected goals

1.46

Heart of Midlothian expected goals

1.59
1–112.0%
1–28.7%
2–18.0%
0–16.6%
2–26.4%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Dundee FC

07 NovLA · St. JohnstonexG 0.58 · xGA 1.531–228 OctWH · KilmarnockxG 2.24 · xGA 2.223–124 OctLA · St. MirrenxG 1.44 · xGA 1.411–2
17 OctDH · RangersxG 1.77 · xGA 1.802–2
10 OctWA · Falkirk FCxG 1.41 · xGA 1.972–1

Heart of Midlothian

08 NovLH · Falkirk FCxG 1.84 · xGA 2.502–528 OctDH · RangersxG 1.67 · xGA 2.202–225 OctWA · MotherwellxG 1.06 · xGA 1.262–0
18 OctLA · CelticxG 1.20 · xGA 4.161–7
10 OctWH · St. MirrenxG 3.44 · xGA 0.685–0

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

06 Sep 2026Heart of Midlothian — Dundee FC2–1
21 Mar 2026Heart of Midlothian — Dundee FC1–0
11 Jan 2026Dundee FC — Heart of Midlothian0–1
01 Nov 2025Heart of Midlothian — Dundee FC4–0
26 Apr 2025Heart of Midlothian — Dundee FC0–1

More Scottish Premiership match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.