Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian

Motherwell host Heart of Midlothian in Scottish Premiership. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Motherwell collected 0 points (0 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses). Heart of Midlothian earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Motherwell have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Heart of Midlothian have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Motherwell average 1.24 xG and 2.14 xGA over 5 recent matches; Heart of Midlothian average 2.00 xG and 1.53 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Motherwell in position 10 and Heart of Midlothian in position 3. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Heart of Midlothian won 2–0 away to Motherwell. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.26 for Motherwell and 1.06 for Heart of Midlothian. Motherwell generated the higher xG total. Motherwell scored -1.26 goals relative to xG and Heart of Midlothian scored +0.94 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Motherwell registered 17 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 29.4%); Heart of Midlothian recorded 14 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 35.7%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (47.5%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian

Final score: 0–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.26 – 1.06.

Shots: 17 – 14.

Shots on target: 5 – 5.

Possession: 54.00% – 46.00%.

Corners: 6 – 5.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.