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Scottish Premiership · Scottish Premiership 26/27 Model vnext-shadow-2026-10 · locked 292.2h before kickoff

Falkirk FC vs St. Johnstone

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Falkirk FC host St. Johnstone in Scottish Premiership. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Falkirk FC collected 15 points (5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses). St. Johnstone earned 6 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Falkirk FC have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, St. Johnstone have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Falkirk FC average 1.46 xG and 1.89 xGA over 5 recent matches; St. Johnstone average 1.12 xG and 2.21 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Falkirk FC in position 3 and St. Johnstone in position 7. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

54.6%Home
24.1%Draw
21.2%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 54.6%

Total goals

57.3%Over 2.5
42.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.5%Yes
42.5%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Falkirk FC 5/5, St. Johnstone 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Scottish Premiership page →
Falkirk FC
Position#3
Points21
Played13
Goal difference+6
St. Johnstone
Position#7
Points17
Played13
Goal difference-3

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Falkirk FC

WWWWW
3.00Points / match
2.60Goals / match
1.46xG / match
1.89xGA / match
VS

St. Johnstone

DLDDW
1.20Points / match
1.40Goals / match
1.12xG / match
2.21xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Falkirk FC at home
W-D-L3-0-2
Points / match1.80
Goals / match1.80
xG / match1.57
St. Johnstone away
W-D-L1-2-2
Points / match1.00
Goals / match1.00
xG / match0.93

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Falkirk FC

17 Oct24 Oct28 Oct01 Nov08 Nov
xGxGA

St. Johnstone

17 Oct24 Oct28 Oct31 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Falkirk FC expected goals

1.88

St. Johnstone expected goals

1.10
1–111.4%
2–19.9%
2–08.9%
1–08.6%
3–16.2%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

Not enough prior league meetings in the database to show a meaningful head-to-head section.

More Scottish Premiership match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.