St. Johnstone vs Motherwell

St. Johnstone host Motherwell in Scottish Premiership. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, St. Johnstone collected 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). Motherwell earned 0 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, St. Johnstone have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Motherwell have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, St. Johnstone average 1.26 xG and 1.44 xGA over 5 recent matches; Motherwell average 1.24 xG and 2.14 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places St. Johnstone in position 5 and Motherwell in position 10. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

St. Johnstone and Motherwell drew 2–2. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.44 for St. Johnstone and 1.51 for Motherwell. Motherwell generated the higher xG total. St. Johnstone scored +0.56 goals relative to xG and Motherwell scored +0.49 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

St. Johnstone registered 15 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 20.0%); Motherwell recorded 17 shots, with 9 on target (shot accuracy: 52.9%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (42.9%); the actual outcome was Draw, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

St. Johnstone vs Motherwell

Final score: 2–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.44 – 1.51.

Shots: 15 – 17.

Shots on target: 3 – 9.

Possession: 56.00% – 44.00%.

Corners: 2 – 8.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.