Kilmarnock vs St. Johnstone

Kilmarnock host St. Johnstone in Scottish Premiership. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Kilmarnock collected 7 points (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). St. Johnstone earned 5 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Kilmarnock have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, St. Johnstone have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Kilmarnock average 1.36 xG and 1.86 xGA over 5 recent matches; St. Johnstone average 0.88 xG and 2.01 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Kilmarnock in position 11 and St. Johnstone in position 8. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Kilmarnock and St. Johnstone drew 2–2. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 3.30 for Kilmarnock and 0.75 for St. Johnstone. Kilmarnock generated the higher xG total. Kilmarnock scored -1.30 goals relative to xG and St. Johnstone scored +1.25 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Kilmarnock registered 22 shots, with 6 on target (shot accuracy: 27.3%); St. Johnstone recorded 6 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 50.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (40.7%); the actual outcome was Draw, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Kilmarnock vs St. Johnstone

Final score: 2–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 3.30 – 0.75.

Shots: 22 – 6.

Shots on target: 6 – 3.

Possession: 63.00% – 37.00%.

Corners: 10 – 2.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.