Motherwell vs St. Mirren

Motherwell host St. Mirren in Scottish Premiership. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Motherwell collected 0 points (0 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses). St. Mirren earned 3 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Motherwell have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, St. Mirren have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Motherwell average 1.24 xG and 2.14 xGA over 5 recent matches; St. Mirren average 1.01 xG and 2.16 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Motherwell in position 10 and St. Mirren in position 6. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Motherwell won 1–0 against St. Mirren. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 2.31 for Motherwell and 0.20 for St. Mirren. Motherwell generated the higher xG total. Motherwell scored -1.31 goals relative to xG and St. Mirren scored -0.20 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Motherwell registered 11 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 18.2%); St. Mirren recorded 5 shots, with 1 on target (shot accuracy: 20.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (44.2%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Motherwell vs St. Mirren

Final score: 1–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 2.31 – 0.20.

Shots: 11 – 5.

Shots on target: 2 – 1.

Possession: 52.00% – 48.00%.

Corners: 6 – 3.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.