SmartMatchData
← All matches
Scottish Premiership · Scottish Premiership 26/27 Model vnext-shadow-2026-10 · locked 164.0h before kickoff

Rangers vs Aberdeen

· Rescheduled · provider status verified 12 Nov 2026 05:30 UTC

Latest provider kickoff: Tue, 24 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC. The date above is the original locked prediction kickoff; probabilities have not been recalculated.

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Rangers host Aberdeen in Scottish Premiership. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Rangers collected 13 points (4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). Aberdeen earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Rangers have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Aberdeen have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Rangers average 2.23 xG and 1.06 xGA over 5 recent matches; Aberdeen average 1.35 xG and 1.16 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Rangers in position 2 and Aberdeen in position 9. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

70.9%Home
18.1%Draw
11.1%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 70.9%

Total goals

64.0%Over 2.5
36.0%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

53.8%Yes
46.2%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Rangers 5/5, Aberdeen 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Scottish Premiership page →
Rangers
Position#2
Points23
Played10
Goal difference+10
Aberdeen
Position#9
Points11
Played10
Goal difference-1

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Rangers

WWWDW
2.60Points / match
2.20Goals / match
2.23xG / match
1.06xGA / match
VS

Aberdeen

WDLWL
1.40Points / match
2.00Goals / match
1.35xG / match
1.16xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Rangers at home
W-D-L4-0-1
Points / match2.40
Goals / match2.00
xG / match2.82
Aberdeen away
W-D-L1-1-3
Points / match0.80
Goals / match1.40
xG / match0.92

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Rangers

09 Sep20 Sep10 Oct17 Oct24 Oct
xGxGA

Aberdeen

15 Sep19 Sep11 Oct17 Oct24 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Rangers expected goals

2.42

Aberdeen expected goals

0.88
2–010.8%
2–19.5%
3–08.8%
1–18.6%
1–08.2%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Rangers

24 OctWH · St. JohnstonexG 4.57 · xGA 0.584–0
17 OctDA · Dundee FCxG 1.80 · xGA 1.772–2
10 OctWH · KilmarnockxG 1.42 · xGA 1.153–1
20 SepWA · CelticxG 1.23 · xGA 0.711–0
09 SepWH · St. MirrenxG 2.13 · xGA 1.101–0

Aberdeen

24 OctLA · Dundee UnitedxG 1.56 · xGA 1.502–3
17 OctWH · St. MirrenxG 2.29 · xGA 1.003–1
11 OctLH · St. JohnstonexG 1.23 · xGA 1.100–1
19 SepDA · HibernianxG 0.77 · xGA 1.431–1
15 SepWA · MotherwellxG 0.91 · xGA 0.774–0

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

30 Aug 2026Aberdeen — Rangers0–1
21 Mar 2026Rangers — Aberdeen4–1
11 Jan 2026Aberdeen — Rangers0–2
06 Jan 2026Rangers — Aberdeen2–0
11 May 2025Rangers — Aberdeen4–0

More Scottish Premiership match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.