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Scottish Premiership · Scottish Premiership 26/27 Model vnext-shadow-2026-10 · locked 164.0h before kickoff

Dundee United vs Heart of Midlothian

· Postponed · provider status verified 12 Nov 2026 05:30 UTC

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Dundee United host Heart of Midlothian in Scottish Premiership. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Dundee United collected 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). Heart of Midlothian earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Dundee United have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Heart of Midlothian have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Dundee United average 1.62 xG and 1.06 xGA over 5 recent matches; Heart of Midlothian average 2.00 xG and 1.53 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Dundee United in position 4 and Heart of Midlothian in position 3. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

44.0%Home
26.0%Draw
30.0%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 44.0%

Total goals

56.6%Over 2.5
43.4%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

59.8%Yes
40.2%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Dundee United 5/5, Heart of Midlothian 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Scottish Premiership page →
Dundee United
Position#4
Points15
Played10
Goal difference0
Heart of Midlothian
Position#3
Points16
Played9
Goal difference+5

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Dundee United

DWWDW
2.20Points / match
1.80Goals / match
1.62xG / match
1.06xGA / match
VS

Heart of Midlothian

WLDWL
1.40Points / match
2.00Goals / match
2.00xG / match
1.53xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Dundee United at home
W-D-L2-2-1
Points / match1.60
Goals / match1.20
xG / match1.66
Heart of Midlothian away
W-D-L1-1-3
Points / match0.80
Goals / match1.40
xG / match1.37

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Dundee United

05 Sep19 Sep10 Oct17 Oct24 Oct
xGxGA

Heart of Midlothian

06 Sep15 Sep19 Sep10 Oct18 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Dundee United expected goals

1.63

Heart of Midlothian expected goals

1.32
1–112.3%
2–19.2%
1–07.5%
1–27.4%
2–07.0%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Dundee United

24 OctWH · AberdeenxG 1.50 · xGA 1.563–2
17 OctDA · St. JohnstonexG 1.11 · xGA 1.281–1
10 OctWH · HibernianxG 1.68 · xGA 0.771–0
19 SepWA · St. MirrenxG 1.52 · xGA 0.853–0
05 SepDH · Falkirk FCxG 2.27 · xGA 0.851–1

Heart of Midlothian

18 OctLA · CelticxG 1.20 · xGA 4.161–7
10 OctWH · St. MirrenxG 3.44 · xGA 0.685–0
19 SepDA · KilmarnockxG 1.78 · xGA 0.231–1
15 SepLA · Falkirk FCxG 1.72 · xGA 2.051–2
06 SepWH · Dundee FCxG 1.87 · xGA 0.512–1

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

09 Aug 2026Heart of Midlothian — Dundee United4–0
31 Jan 2026Dundee United — Heart of Midlothian0–3
09 Nov 2025Heart of Midlothian — Dundee United1–1
10 Aug 2025Dundee United — Heart of Midlothian2–3
06 Apr 2025Heart of Midlothian — Dundee United0–1

More Scottish Premiership match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.