Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk FC

Heart of Midlothian host Falkirk FC in Scottish Premiership. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Heart of Midlothian collected 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). Falkirk FC earned 12 points from 5 matches (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Heart of Midlothian have 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Falkirk FC have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Heart of Midlothian average 1.83 xG and 1.71 xGA over 5 recent matches; Falkirk FC average 1.36 xG and 1.80 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Heart of Midlothian in position 3 and Falkirk FC in position 4. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Falkirk FC won 5–2 away to Heart of Midlothian. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.84 for Heart of Midlothian and 2.50 for Falkirk FC. Falkirk FC generated the higher xG total. Heart of Midlothian scored +0.16 goals relative to xG and Falkirk FC scored +2.50 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Heart of Midlothian registered 16 shots, with 6 on target (shot accuracy: 37.5%); Falkirk FC recorded 14 shots, with 7 on target (shot accuracy: 50.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (62.0%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk FC

Final score: 2–5. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.84 – 2.50.

Shots: 16 – 14.

Shots on target: 6 – 7.

Possession: 59.00% – 41.00%.

Corners: 4 – 5.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.