SmartMatchData
← All matches
Scottish Premiership · Scottish Premiership 26/27 Model vnext-shadow-2026-10 · locked 292.2h before kickoff

Hibernian vs Dundee United

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Hibernian host Dundee United in Scottish Premiership. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Hibernian collected 4 points (1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses). Dundee United earned 9 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Hibernian have 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Dundee United have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Hibernian average 1.42 xG and 1.25 xGA over 5 recent matches; Dundee United average 1.41 xG and 1.38 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Hibernian in position 10 and Dundee United in position 6. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

35.4%Home
26.8%Draw
37.8%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 37.8%

Total goals

54.6%Over 2.5
45.4%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

58.9%Yes
41.1%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Hibernian 5/5, Dundee United 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Scottish Premiership page →
Hibernian
Position#10
Points11
Played12
Goal difference-2
Dundee United
Position#6
Points17
Played12
Goal difference0

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Hibernian

LLLDW
0.80Points / match
1.40Goals / match
1.42xG / match
1.25xGA / match
VS

Dundee United

WDWDD
1.80Points / match
1.60Goals / match
1.41xG / match
1.38xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Hibernian at home
W-D-L0-1-4
Points / match0.20
Goals / match0.80
xG / match1.40
Dundee United away
W-D-L2-2-1
Points / match1.60
Goals / match2.00
xG / match1.44

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Hibernian

10 Oct17 Oct25 Oct28 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

Dundee United

10 Oct17 Oct24 Oct28 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Hibernian expected goals

1.41

Dundee United expected goals

1.46
1–112.7%
1–28.5%
2–18.2%
0–17.3%
1–06.9%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Hibernian

07 NovWA · AberdeenxG 2.41 · xGA 0.964–028 OctDA · St. MirrenxG 1.36 · xGA 1.721–125 OctLH · CelticxG 1.19 · xGA 1.151–2
17 OctLH · Falkirk FCxG 1.35 · xGA 0.761–2
10 OctLA · Dundee UnitedxG 0.77 · xGA 1.680–1

Dundee United

07 NovDH · MotherwellxG 1.91 · xGA 1.751–128 OctDA · CelticxG 0.87 · xGA 1.552–224 OctWH · AberdeenxG 1.50 · xGA 1.563–2
17 OctDA · St. JohnstonexG 1.11 · xGA 1.281–1
10 OctWH · HibernianxG 1.68 · xGA 0.771–0

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

10 Oct 2026Dundee United — Hibernian1–0
04 Feb 2026Hibernian — Dundee United3–2
20 Dec 2025Dundee United — Hibernian1–1
13 Sep 2025Hibernian — Dundee United3–3
03 May 2025Hibernian — Dundee United3–1

More Scottish Premiership match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.