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Bundesliga · Bundesliga 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 294.7h before kickoff

FC Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

FC Schalke 04 host VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, FC Schalke 04 collected 1 points (0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses). VfB Stuttgart earned 9 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, FC Schalke 04 have 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 4 recorded home matches. On the road, VfB Stuttgart have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, FC Schalke 04 average 0.87 xG and 1.86 xGA over 5 recent matches; VfB Stuttgart average 1.95 xG and 1.86 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places FC Schalke 04 in position 17 and VfB Stuttgart in position 8. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

24.0%Home
24.4%Draw
51.6%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 51.6%

Total goals

59.8%Over 2.5
40.2%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

60.7%Yes
39.3%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches FC Schalke 04 5/5, VfB Stuttgart 5/5; home/away splits 4/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Bundesliga page →
FC Schalke 04
Position#17
Points6
Played9
Goal difference-6
VfB Stuttgart
Position#8
Points12
Played9
Goal difference0

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

FC Schalke 04

LLDLL
0.20Points / match
0.40Goals / match
0.87xG / match
1.86xGA / match
VS

VfB Stuttgart

WLLWW
1.80Points / match
1.80Goals / match
1.95xG / match
1.86xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

FC Schalke 04 at home
W-D-L0-2-2
Points / match0.50
Goals / match0.00
xG / match0.54
VfB Stuttgart away
W-D-L2-0-3
Points / match1.20
Goals / match1.60
xG / match2.09

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

FC Schalke 04

11 Oct17 Oct24 Oct31 Oct08 Nov
xGxGA

VfB Stuttgart

10 Oct17 Oct23 Oct31 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

FC Schalke 04 expected goals

1.23

VfB Stuttgart expected goals

1.87
1–111.3%
1–29.7%
0–27.9%
0–17.5%
2–16.4%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

Not enough prior league meetings in the database to show a meaningful head-to-head section.

More Bundesliga match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.