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Bundesliga · Bundesliga 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 291.7h before kickoff

Eintracht Frankfurt vs TSG Hoffenheim

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Eintracht Frankfurt host TSG Hoffenheim in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Eintracht Frankfurt collected 7 points (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). TSG Hoffenheim earned 9 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Eintracht Frankfurt have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, TSG Hoffenheim have 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Eintracht Frankfurt average 1.54 xG and 1.78 xGA over 5 recent matches; TSG Hoffenheim average 1.83 xG and 1.24 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Eintracht Frankfurt in position 10 and TSG Hoffenheim in position 9. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

39.6%Home
25.2%Draw
35.2%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 39.6%

Total goals

62.3%Over 2.5
37.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

64.8%Yes
35.2%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Eintracht Frankfurt 5/5, TSG Hoffenheim 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Bundesliga page →
Eintracht Frankfurt
Position#10
Points12
Played9
Goal difference-5
TSG Hoffenheim
Position#9
Points12
Played9
Goal difference-1

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Eintracht Frankfurt

LWLWD
1.40Points / match
1.20Goals / match
1.54xG / match
1.78xGA / match
VS

TSG Hoffenheim

LWWLW
1.80Points / match
1.80Goals / match
1.83xG / match
1.24xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Eintracht Frankfurt at home
W-D-L2-2-1
Points / match1.60
Goals / match1.80
xG / match2.14
TSG Hoffenheim away
W-D-L1-0-4
Points / match0.60
Goals / match1.00
xG / match1.59

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Eintracht Frankfurt

10 Oct16 Oct24 Oct01 Nov07 Nov
xGxGA

TSG Hoffenheim

10 Oct18 Oct25 Oct31 Oct08 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Eintracht Frankfurt expected goals

1.66

TSG Hoffenheim expected goals

1.56
1–111.3%
2–18.6%
1–28.1%
2–26.7%
1–05.7%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

24 Jan 2026Eintracht Frankfurt — TSG Hoffenheim1–3
30 Aug 2025TSG Hoffenheim — Eintracht Frankfurt1–3
26 Jan 2025TSG Hoffenheim — Eintracht Frankfurt2–2
31 Aug 2024Eintracht Frankfurt — TSG Hoffenheim3–1
10 Mar 2024Eintracht Frankfurt — TSG Hoffenheim3–1

More Bundesliga match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

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