SmartMatchData
← All matches
Bundesliga · Bundesliga 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 291.7h before kickoff

SV 07 Elversberg vs SC Freiburg

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

SV 07 Elversberg host SC Freiburg in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, SV 07 Elversberg collected 6 points (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses). SC Freiburg earned 10 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, SV 07 Elversberg have 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses in their last 4 recorded home matches. On the road, SC Freiburg have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, SV 07 Elversberg average 1.37 xG and 2.19 xGA over 5 recent matches; SC Freiburg average 1.39 xG and 1.19 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places SV 07 Elversberg in position 7 and SC Freiburg in position 3. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

25.5%Home
24.2%Draw
50.3%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 50.3%

Total goals

62.3%Over 2.5
37.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

63.0%Yes
37.0%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches SV 07 Elversberg 5/5, SC Freiburg 5/5; home/away splits 4/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Bundesliga page →
SV 07 Elversberg
Position#7
Points13
Played9
Goal difference-1
SC Freiburg
Position#3
Points20
Played9
Goal difference+11

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

SV 07 Elversberg

LWLWL
1.20Points / match
1.80Goals / match
1.37xG / match
2.19xGA / match
VS

SC Freiburg

WDLWW
2.00Points / match
1.60Goals / match
1.39xG / match
1.19xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

SV 07 Elversberg at home
W-D-L3-0-1
Points / match2.25
Goals / match3.00
xG / match1.73
SC Freiburg away
W-D-L2-2-1
Points / match1.60
Goals / match1.60
xG / match1.53

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

SV 07 Elversberg

10 Oct17 Oct24 Oct30 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

SC Freiburg

11 Oct25 Oct31 Oct08 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

SV 07 Elversberg expected goals

1.31

SC Freiburg expected goals

1.90
1–110.9%
1–29.5%
0–27.3%
0–16.8%
2–16.6%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

Not enough prior league meetings in the database to show a meaningful head-to-head section.

More Bundesliga match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.