Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg

Bayer 04 Leverkusen host SC Freiburg in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Bayer 04 Leverkusen collected 10 points (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). SC Freiburg earned 13 points from 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, SC Freiburg have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 2.32 xG and 1.32 xGA over 5 recent matches; SC Freiburg average 2.06 xG and 0.79 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Bayer 04 Leverkusen in position 4 and SC Freiburg in position 1. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen and SC Freiburg drew 1–1. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.64 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.21 for SC Freiburg. Bayer 04 Leverkusen generated the higher xG total. Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored -0.64 goals relative to xG and SC Freiburg scored -0.21 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen registered 12 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 41.7%); SC Freiburg recorded 11 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 18.2%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (52.6%); the actual outcome was Draw, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg

Final score: 1–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.64 – 1.21.

Shots: 12 – 11.

Shots on target: 5 – 2.

Possession: 49.00% – 51.00%.

Corners: 4 – 3.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.