SmartMatchData
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Bundesliga · Bundesliga 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 291.7h before kickoff

1. FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

1. FC Union Berlin host RB Leipzig in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, 1. FC Union Berlin collected 6 points (1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses). RB Leipzig earned 12 points from 5 matches (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, 1. FC Union Berlin have 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, RB Leipzig have 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, 1. FC Union Berlin average 0.94 xG and 1.32 xGA over 5 recent matches; RB Leipzig average 2.37 xG and 1.57 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places 1. FC Union Berlin in position 16 and RB Leipzig in position 4. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

22.1%Home
23.4%Draw
54.5%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 54.5%

Total goals

61.9%Over 2.5
38.1%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

61.4%Yes
38.6%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches 1. FC Union Berlin 5/5, RB Leipzig 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Bundesliga page →
1. FC Union Berlin
Position#16
Points7
Played9
Goal difference-14
RB Leipzig
Position#4
Points18
Played9
Goal difference+14

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

1. FC Union Berlin

WDDDL
1.20Points / match
0.60Goals / match
0.94xG / match
1.32xGA / match
VS

RB Leipzig

WLWWW
2.40Points / match
3.60Goals / match
2.37xG / match
1.57xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

1. FC Union Berlin at home
W-D-L1-3-1
Points / match1.20
Goals / match1.20
xG / match1.39
RB Leipzig away
W-D-L1-0-4
Points / match0.60
Goals / match1.00
xG / match1.56

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

1. FC Union Berlin

10 Oct17 Oct24 Oct01 Nov08 Nov
xGxGA

RB Leipzig

10 Oct17 Oct24 Oct31 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

1. FC Union Berlin expected goals

1.21

RB Leipzig expected goals

1.99
1–110.7%
1–29.8%
0–28.1%
0–17.2%
1–36.5%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

24 Apr 2026RB Leipzig — 1. FC Union Berlin3–1
12 Dec 20251. FC Union Berlin — RB Leipzig3–1
01 Feb 20251. FC Union Berlin — RB Leipzig0–0
14 Sep 2024RB Leipzig — 1. FC Union Berlin0–0
04 Feb 2024RB Leipzig — 1. FC Union Berlin2–0

More Bundesliga match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.