1. FC Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln

1. FC Union Berlin host 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, 1. FC Union Berlin collected 5 points (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). 1. FC Köln earned 5 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, 1. FC Union Berlin have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, 1. FC Köln have 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, 1. FC Union Berlin average 1.16 xG and 1.87 xGA over 5 recent matches; 1. FC Köln average 1.28 xG and 1.23 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places 1. FC Union Berlin in position 17 and 1. FC Köln in position 12. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 4 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

1. FC Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln drew 1–1. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 0.87 for 1. FC Union Berlin and 1.21 for 1. FC Köln. 1. FC Köln generated the higher xG total. 1. FC Union Berlin scored +0.13 goals relative to xG and 1. FC Köln scored -0.21 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

1. FC Union Berlin registered 5 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 40.0%); 1. FC Köln recorded 14 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 14.3%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (44.0%); the actual outcome was Draw, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

1. FC Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln

Final score: 1–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 0.87 – 1.21.

Shots: 5 – 14.

Shots on target: 2 – 2.

Possession: 37.00% – 63.00%.

Corners: 2 – 6.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.