SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin

SC Freiburg host 1. FC Union Berlin in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, SC Freiburg collected 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). 1. FC Union Berlin earned 6 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, SC Freiburg have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, 1. FC Union Berlin have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, SC Freiburg average 1.59 xG and 1.64 xGA over 4 recent matches; 1. FC Union Berlin average 0.94 xG and 1.61 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places SC Freiburg in position 3 and 1. FC Union Berlin in position 16. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

SC Freiburg won 2–0 against 1. FC Union Berlin. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 2.28 for SC Freiburg and 0.35 for 1. FC Union Berlin. SC Freiburg generated the higher xG total. SC Freiburg scored -0.28 goals relative to xG and 1. FC Union Berlin scored -0.35 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

SC Freiburg registered 20 shots, with 9 on target (shot accuracy: 45.0%); 1. FC Union Berlin recorded 4 shots, with 0 on target (shot accuracy: 0.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (62.9%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin

Final score: 2–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 2.28 – 0.35.

Shots: 20 – 4.

Shots on target: 9 – 0.

Possession: 59.00% – 41.00%.

Corners: 5 – 1.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.