TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04
Pre-match analysis and preview
Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.
TSG Hoffenheim host FC Schalke 04 in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.
Across their last 5 recorded league matches, TSG Hoffenheim collected 6 points (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses). FC Schalke 04 earned 2 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.
At home, TSG Hoffenheim have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, FC Schalke 04 have 1 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across 4 away matches.
Where full-quality xG is available, TSG Hoffenheim average 1.75 xG and 0.85 xGA over 5 recent matches; FC Schalke 04 average 0.56 xG and 1.68 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.
At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places TSG Hoffenheim in position 12 and FC Schalke 04 in position 17. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.
This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.
Model prediction
Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.
1X2
Total goals
Both teams to score
Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches TSG Hoffenheim 5/5, FC Schalke 04 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 4/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.
Pre-match league context
Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.
Recent form comparison
Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.
TSG Hoffenheim
FC Schalke 04
Home / away form
Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.
xG trends
Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.
TSG Hoffenheim
FC Schalke 04
Expected goals & scorelines
Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.
TSG Hoffenheim expected goals
FC Schalke 04 expected goals
Recent matches
The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.
TSG Hoffenheim
31 OctLA · SV Werder BremenxG 1.13 · xGA 1.160–225 OctWH · Bayer 04 LeverkusenxG 3.26 · xGA 0.713–018 OctWA · Borussia M'gladbachxG 1.80 · xGA 0.472–1FC Schalke 04
31 OctLH · RB LeipzigxG 0.49 · xGA 3.240–224 OctDA · 1. FC KölnxG 0.60 · xGA 1.220–017 OctLH · 1. FSV Mainz 05xG 0.43 · xGA 1.940–1Head to head
Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.
Post-match analysis
Final score, verified match data and the original model prediction.
TSG Hoffenheim won 2–1 against FC Schalke 04. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.
Expected goals were 1.90 for TSG Hoffenheim and 2.60 for FC Schalke 04. FC Schalke 04 generated the higher xG total. TSG Hoffenheim scored +0.10 goals relative to xG and FC Schalke 04 scored -1.60 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.
TSG Hoffenheim registered 15 shots, with 7 on target (shot accuracy: 46.7%); FC Schalke 04 recorded 23 shots, with 6 on target (shot accuracy: 26.1%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.
The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (64.8%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.
Post-match statistical review
Verified final-match data, shown only where the provider supplies both teams' values.
TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04
Final score: 2–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.
Expected goals (xG): 1.90 – 2.60.
Shots: 15 – 23.
Shots on target: 7 – 6.
Possession: 49.00% – 51.00%.
Corners: 6 – 4.
Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.
Forward result
The prediction above remained locked; this section compares it with the final result.
More Bundesliga match analysis
Nearby locked predictions from the same season.
Continue exploring
Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.