TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen

TSG Hoffenheim host Bayer 04 Leverkusen in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, TSG Hoffenheim collected 6 points (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses). Bayer 04 Leverkusen earned 11 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, TSG Hoffenheim have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, TSG Hoffenheim average 1.77 xG and 1.32 xGA over 5 recent matches; Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 2.43 xG and 1.33 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places TSG Hoffenheim in position 13 and Bayer 04 Leverkusen in position 4. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

TSG Hoffenheim won 3–0 against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 3.26 for TSG Hoffenheim and 0.71 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen. TSG Hoffenheim generated the higher xG total. TSG Hoffenheim scored -0.26 goals relative to xG and Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored -0.71 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

TSG Hoffenheim registered 20 shots, with 6 on target (shot accuracy: 30.0%); Bayer 04 Leverkusen recorded 10 shots, with 1 on target (shot accuracy: 10.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (38.6%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Final score: 3–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 3.26 – 0.71.

Shots: 20 – 10.

Shots on target: 6 – 1.

Possession: 42.00% – 58.00%.

Corners: 5 – 3.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.