SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München

SC Freiburg host FC Bayern München in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, SC Freiburg collected 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). FC Bayern München earned 11 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, SC Freiburg have 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, FC Bayern München have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, SC Freiburg average 1.98 xG and 0.85 xGA over 4 recent matches; FC Bayern München average 3.38 xG and 0.94 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places SC Freiburg in position 2 and FC Bayern München in position 1. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

FC Bayern München won 3–1 away to SC Freiburg. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 0.90 for SC Freiburg and 2.99 for FC Bayern München. FC Bayern München generated the higher xG total. SC Freiburg scored +0.10 goals relative to xG and FC Bayern München scored +0.01 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

SC Freiburg registered 16 shots, with 4 on target (shot accuracy: 25.0%); FC Bayern München recorded 17 shots, with 9 on target (shot accuracy: 52.9%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (51.1%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München

Final score: 1–3. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 0.90 – 2.99.

Shots: 16 – 17.

Shots on target: 4 – 9.

Possession: 44.00% – 56.00%.

Corners: 5 – 6.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.