FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg

FC Augsburg host SC Freiburg in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, FC Augsburg collected 3 points (0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses). SC Freiburg earned 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, FC Augsburg have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, SC Freiburg have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, FC Augsburg average 2.07 xG and 3.08 xGA over 5 recent matches; SC Freiburg average 1.90 xG and 1.40 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places FC Augsburg in position 9 and SC Freiburg in position 3. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

SC Freiburg won 2–1 away to FC Augsburg. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.15 for FC Augsburg and 1.39 for SC Freiburg. SC Freiburg generated the higher xG total. FC Augsburg scored -0.15 goals relative to xG and SC Freiburg scored +0.61 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

FC Augsburg registered 15 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 33.3%); SC Freiburg recorded 10 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 20.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (43.6%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg

Final score: 1–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.15 – 1.39.

Shots: 15 – 10.

Shots on target: 5 – 2.

Possession: 52.00% – 48.00%.

Corners: 1 – 2.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.