Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart

Bayer 04 Leverkusen host VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Bayer 04 Leverkusen collected 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). VfB Stuttgart earned 3 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, VfB Stuttgart have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 1.83 xG and 2.05 xGA over 4 recent matches; VfB Stuttgart average 1.91 xG and 2.00 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Bayer 04 Leverkusen in position 6 and VfB Stuttgart in position 15. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

VfB Stuttgart won 4–2 away to Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.98 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 2.81 for VfB Stuttgart. VfB Stuttgart generated the higher xG total. Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored +0.02 goals relative to xG and VfB Stuttgart scored +1.19 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen registered 24 shots, with 8 on target (shot accuracy: 33.3%); VfB Stuttgart recorded 15 shots, with 7 on target (shot accuracy: 46.7%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (65.2%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart

Final score: 2–4. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.98 – 2.81.

Shots: 24 – 15.

Shots on target: 8 – 7.

Possession: 63.00% – 37.00%.

Corners: 12 – 3.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.