SmartMatchData
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Bundesliga · Bundesliga 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 272.7h before kickoff

FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

FC Bayern München host 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, FC Bayern München collected 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). 1. FC Köln earned 5 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, FC Bayern München have 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, 1. FC Köln have 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, FC Bayern München average 3.66 xG and 1.07 xGA over 5 recent matches; 1. FC Köln average 1.22 xG and 1.23 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places FC Bayern München in position 1 and 1. FC Köln in position 15. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 4 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

90.3%Home
6.8%Draw
2.9%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 90.3%

Total goals

85.2%Over 2.5
14.8%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

52.6%Yes
47.4%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches FC Bayern München 5/5, 1. FC Köln 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Bundesliga page →
FC Bayern München
Position#1
Points21
Played9
Goal difference+20
1. FC Köln
Position#15
Points9
Played9
Goal difference-4

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

FC Bayern München

DWWDW
2.20Points / match
3.00Goals / match
3.66xG / match
1.07xGA / match
VS

1. FC Köln

WLDDL
1.00Points / match
0.80Goals / match
1.22xG / match
1.23xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

FC Bayern München at home
W-D-L4-1-0
Points / match2.60
Goals / match5.00
xG / match3.68
1. FC Köln away
W-D-L0-1-4
Points / match0.20
Goals / match0.80
xG / match1.45

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

FC Bayern München

10 Oct17 Oct25 Oct31 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

1. FC Köln

11 Oct16 Oct24 Oct01 Nov08 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

FC Bayern München expected goals

3.98

1. FC Köln expected goals

0.76
3–09.3%
4–09.3%
5–07.4%
3–17.1%
4–17.1%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

16 May 2026FC Bayern München — 1. FC Köln5–1
14 Jan 20261. FC Köln — FC Bayern München1–3
13 Apr 2024FC Bayern München — 1. FC Köln2–0
24 Nov 20231. FC Köln — FC Bayern München0–1

More Bundesliga match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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