1. FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München
Pre-match analysis and preview
Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.
1. FSV Mainz 05 host FC Bayern München in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.
Across their last 5 recorded league matches, 1. FSV Mainz 05 collected 6 points (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses). FC Bayern München earned 11 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.
At home, 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, FC Bayern München have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses across 5 away matches.
Where full-quality xG is available, 1. FSV Mainz 05 average 2.09 xG and 1.77 xGA over 5 recent matches; FC Bayern München average 3.86 xG and 1.02 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.
At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places 1. FSV Mainz 05 in position 8 and FC Bayern München in position 1. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.
The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.
This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.
Model prediction
Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.
1X2
Total goals
Both teams to score
Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches 1. FSV Mainz 05 5/5, FC Bayern München 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.
Pre-match league context
Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.
Recent form comparison
Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.
1. FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München
Home / away form
Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.
xG trends
Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.
1. FSV Mainz 05
FC Bayern München
Expected goals & scorelines
Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.
1. FSV Mainz 05 expected goals
FC Bayern München expected goals
Recent matches
The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.
1. FSV Mainz 05
30 OctLA · SV 07 ElversbergxG 1.15 · xGA 0.931–424 OctLH · SV Werder BremenxG 1.69 · xGA 2.562–317 OctWA · FC Schalke 04xG 1.94 · xGA 0.431–0FC Bayern München
31 OctDH · Borussia DortmundxG 4.18 · xGA 0.632–225 OctWA · SC FreiburgxG 2.99 · xGA 0.903–117 OctWH · RB LeipzigxG 3.40 · xGA 0.846–1Head to head
Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.
Post-match analysis
Final score, verified match data and the original model prediction.
FC Bayern München won 2–1 away to 1. FSV Mainz 05. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.
Expected goals were 0.60 for 1. FSV Mainz 05 and 2.67 for FC Bayern München. FC Bayern München generated the higher xG total. 1. FSV Mainz 05 scored +0.40 goals relative to xG and FC Bayern München scored -0.67 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.
1. FSV Mainz 05 registered 11 shots, with 1 on target (shot accuracy: 9.1%); FC Bayern München recorded 26 shots, with 9 on target (shot accuracy: 34.6%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.
The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (67.5%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.
Post-match statistical review
Verified final-match data, shown only where the provider supplies both teams' values.
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München
Final score: 1–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.
Expected goals (xG): 0.60 – 2.67.
Shots: 11 – 26.
Shots on target: 1 – 9.
Possession: 31.00% – 69.00%.
Corners: 7 – 8.
Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.
Forward result
The prediction above remained locked; this section compares it with the final result.
More Bundesliga match analysis
Nearby locked predictions from the same season.
Continue exploring
Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.