1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Werder Bremen

1. FSV Mainz 05 host SV Werder Bremen in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, 1. FSV Mainz 05 collected 9 points (3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses). SV Werder Bremen earned 9 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, SV Werder Bremen have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, 1. FSV Mainz 05 average 2.50 xG and 1.52 xGA over 5 recent matches; SV Werder Bremen average 1.87 xG and 1.55 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places 1. FSV Mainz 05 in position 5 and SV Werder Bremen in position 8. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

SV Werder Bremen won 3–2 away to 1. FSV Mainz 05. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.69 for 1. FSV Mainz 05 and 2.56 for SV Werder Bremen. SV Werder Bremen generated the higher xG total. 1. FSV Mainz 05 scored +0.31 goals relative to xG and SV Werder Bremen scored +0.44 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

1. FSV Mainz 05 registered 18 shots, with 8 on target (shot accuracy: 44.4%); SV Werder Bremen recorded 17 shots, with 8 on target (shot accuracy: 47.1%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (57.5%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Werder Bremen

Final score: 2–3. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.69 – 2.56.

Shots: 18 – 17.

Shots on target: 8 – 8.

Possession: 53.00% – 47.00%.

Corners: 6 – 6.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.