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LaLiga · LaLiga 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 290.2h before kickoff

Deportivo Alavés vs Deportivo La Coruña

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Deportivo Alavés host Deportivo La Coruña in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Deportivo Alavés collected 3 points (0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses). Deportivo La Coruña earned 5 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Deportivo Alavés have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Deportivo La Coruña have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Deportivo Alavés average 1.03 xG and 1.71 xGA over 5 recent matches; Deportivo La Coruña average 1.54 xG and 1.05 xGA over 3 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Deportivo Alavés in position 10 and Deportivo La Coruña in position 9. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

32.4%Home
28.7%Draw
38.9%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 38.9%

Total goals

47.6%Over 2.5
52.4%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

53.5%Yes
46.5%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Deportivo Alavés 5/5, Deportivo La Coruña 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

LaLiga page →
Deportivo Alavés
Position#10
Points14
Played12
Goal difference-1
Deportivo La Coruña
Position#9
Points15
Played12
Goal difference+1

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Deportivo Alavés

LDDLD
0.60Points / match
0.60Goals / match
1.03xG / match
1.71xGA / match
VS

Deportivo La Coruña

LDLWD
1.00Points / match
0.80Goals / match
1.54xG / match
1.05xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Deportivo Alavés at home
W-D-L2-1-2
Points / match1.40
Goals / match1.60
xG / match1.18
Deportivo La Coruña away
W-D-L1-2-2
Points / match1.00
Goals / match1.20
xG / match0.99

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Deportivo Alavés

10 Oct18 Oct23 Oct31 Oct06 Nov
xGxGA

Deportivo La Coruña

24 Oct02 Nov07 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Deportivo Alavés expected goals

1.22

Deportivo La Coruña expected goals

1.36
1–113.7%
0–19.2%
0–08.7%
1–28.5%
1–08.1%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

Not enough prior league meetings in the database to show a meaningful head-to-head section.

More LaLiga match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.