SmartMatchData
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LaLiga · LaLiga 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 294.7h before kickoff

Sevilla vs Real Betis

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Sevilla host Real Betis in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Sevilla collected 5 points (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). Real Betis earned 11 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Sevilla have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Real Betis have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Sevilla average 1.28 xG and 1.39 xGA over 5 recent matches; Real Betis average 1.85 xG and 1.29 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Sevilla in position 6 and Real Betis in position 4. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

30.1%Home
27.0%Draw
42.9%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 42.9%

Total goals

53.6%Over 2.5
46.4%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.8%Yes
42.2%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Sevilla 5/5, Real Betis 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

LaLiga page →
Sevilla
Position#6
Points18
Played12
Goal difference-2
Real Betis
Position#4
Points27
Played12
Goal difference+8

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Sevilla

DLWLD
1.00Points / match
1.40Goals / match
1.28xG / match
1.39xGA / match
VS

Real Betis

WDDWW
2.20Points / match
1.80Goals / match
1.85xG / match
1.29xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Sevilla at home
W-D-L2-1-2
Points / match1.40
Goals / match1.00
xG / match0.99
Real Betis away
W-D-L2-2-1
Points / match1.60
Goals / match1.40
xG / match1.92

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Sevilla

12 Oct18 Oct26 Oct01 Nov06 Nov
xGxGA

Real Betis

11 Oct25 Oct31 Oct08 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Sevilla expected goals

1.27

Real Betis expected goals

1.55
1–112.8%
1–29.1%
0–18.2%
2–17.4%
0–27.2%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

01 Mar 2026Real Betis — Sevilla2–2
30 Nov 2025Sevilla — Real Betis0–2
30 Mar 2025Real Betis — Sevilla2–1
06 Oct 2024Sevilla — Real Betis1–0
28 Apr 2024Real Betis — Sevilla1–1

More LaLiga match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.