Real Madrid vs Sevilla

Real Madrid host Sevilla in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Real Madrid collected 9 points (3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses). Sevilla earned 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Real Madrid have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Sevilla have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Real Madrid average 2.28 xG and 1.17 xGA over 5 recent matches; Sevilla average 0.96 xG and 1.35 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Real Madrid in position 4 and Sevilla in position 5. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Real Madrid won 4–1 against Sevilla. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 2.24 for Real Madrid and 0.75 for Sevilla. Real Madrid generated the higher xG total. Real Madrid scored +1.76 goals relative to xG and Sevilla scored +0.25 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Real Madrid registered 15 shots, with 8 on target (shot accuracy: 53.3%); Sevilla recorded 11 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 45.5%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (66.7%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla

Final score: 4–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 2.24 – 0.75.

Shots: 15 – 11.

Shots on target: 8 – 5.

Possession: 65.00% – 35.00%.

Corners: 1 – 2.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.