Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Real Madrid host Villarreal in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Real Madrid collected 9 points (3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses). Villarreal earned 6 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Real Madrid have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Villarreal have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Real Madrid average 2.52 xG and 1.20 xGA over 5 recent matches; Villarreal average 2.48 xG and 1.28 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Real Madrid in position 4 and Villarreal in position 9. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Real Madrid won 1–0 against Villarreal. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.43 for Real Madrid and 0.59 for Villarreal. Real Madrid generated the higher xG total. Real Madrid scored -0.43 goals relative to xG and Villarreal scored -0.59 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Real Madrid registered 11 shots, with 4 on target (shot accuracy: 36.4%); Villarreal recorded 15 shots, with 4 on target (shot accuracy: 26.7%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (57.1%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Final score: 1–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.43 – 0.59.

Shots: 11 – 15.

Shots on target: 4 – 4.

Possession: 46.00% – 54.00%.

Corners: 9 – 3.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.