SmartMatchData
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LaLiga · LaLiga 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 26.2h before kickoff

Real Betis vs Osasuna

· Final

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Real Betis host Osasuna in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Real Betis collected 10 points (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). Osasuna earned 4 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Real Betis have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Osasuna have 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Real Betis average 1.86 xG and 2.10 xGA over 5 recent matches; Osasuna average 1.08 xG and 1.66 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Real Betis in position 3 and Osasuna in position 14. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

51.0%Home
25.5%Draw
23.5%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 51.0%

Total goals

55.2%Over 2.5
44.8%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.1%Yes
42.9%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Real Betis 5/5, Osasuna 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

LaLiga page →
Real Betis
Position#3
Points16
Played7
Goal difference+2
Osasuna
Position#14
Points8
Played7
Goal difference-7

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Real Betis

LWWWD
2.00Points / match
1.40Goals / match
1.86xG / match
2.10xGA / match
VS

Osasuna

WLLLD
0.80Points / match
0.80Goals / match
1.08xG / match
1.66xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Real Betis at home
W-D-L5-0-0
Points / match3.00
Goals / match1.40
xG / match1.47
Osasuna away
W-D-L1-0-4
Points / match0.60
Goals / match1.20
xG / match1.17

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Real Betis

29 Aug04 Sep14 Sep17 Sep20 Sep
xGxGA

Osasuna

31 Aug06 Sep12 Sep16 Sep19 Sep
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Real Betis expected goals

1.76

Osasuna expected goals

1.13
1–112.1%
2–19.7%
1–08.8%
2–08.6%
0–06.6%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Real Betis

20 SepDA · Deportivo La CoruñaxG 0.80 · xGA 2.091–1
17 SepWH · GetafexG 1.89 · xGA 0.291–0
14 SepWA · VillarrealxG 3.75 · xGA 1.882–1
04 SepWH · Real MadridxG 0.93 · xGA 3.461–0
29 AugLA · Levante UDxG 1.92 · xGA 2.762–5

Osasuna

19 SepDH · Rayo VallecanoxG 0.53 · xGA 1.011–1
16 SepLA · Atlético MadridxG 0.48 · xGA 3.970–4
12 SepLH · EspanyolxG 1.05 · xGA 1.430–2
06 SepLA · Deportivo AlavésxG 1.64 · xGA 1.202–5
31 AugWH · GetafexG 1.68 · xGA 0.681–0

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

12 Apr 2026Osasuna — Real Betis1–1
28 Sep 2025Real Betis — Osasuna2–0
11 May 2025Real Betis — Osasuna1–1
19 Oct 2024Osasuna — Real Betis1–2
05 May 2024Osasuna — Real Betis0–2

Post-match analysis

Final score, verified match data and the original model prediction.

Real Betis won 5–2 against Osasuna. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 2.89 for Real Betis and 1.94 for Osasuna. Real Betis generated the higher xG total. Real Betis scored +2.11 goals relative to xG and Osasuna scored +0.06 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Real Betis registered 20 shots, with 7 on target (shot accuracy: 35.0%); Osasuna recorded 11 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 45.5%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (51.0%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Post-match statistical review

Verified final-match data, shown only where the provider supplies both teams' values.

Real Betis vs Osasuna

Final score: 5–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 2.89 – 1.94.

Shots: 20 – 11.

Shots on target: 7 – 5.

Possession: 52.00% – 48.00%.

Corners: 8 – 4.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.

Forward result

The prediction above remained locked; this section compares it with the final result.

Model performance →
✓ Hit1X2 · predicted Home, actual Home
✓ HitOver 2.5 · predicted Over, actual Over
✓ HitBTTS · predicted Yes, actual Yes

More LaLiga match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.