SmartMatchData
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LaLiga · LaLiga 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 164.0h before kickoff

Elche vs Real Betis

· Final

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Elche host Real Betis in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Elche collected 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). Real Betis earned 9 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Elche have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Real Betis have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Elche average 1.21 xG and 1.77 xGA over 5 recent matches; Real Betis average 1.55 xG and 1.51 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Elche in position 17 and Real Betis in position 4. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 2 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

27.7%Home
25.8%Draw
46.5%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 46.5%

Total goals

57.3%Over 2.5
42.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

60.0%Yes
40.0%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Elche 5/5, Real Betis 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

LaLiga page →
Elche
Position#17
Points10
Played10
Goal difference-3
Real Betis
Position#4
Points24
Played11
Goal difference+6

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Elche

LWDDW
1.60Points / match
1.60Goals / match
1.21xG / match
1.77xGA / match
VS

Real Betis

DWDDW
1.80Points / match
1.60Goals / match
1.55xG / match
1.51xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Elche at home
W-D-L1-1-3
Points / match0.80
Goals / match1.00
xG / match1.06
Real Betis away
W-D-L2-2-1
Points / match1.60
Goals / match1.20
xG / match1.65

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Elche

15 Sep18 Sep11 Oct17 Oct24 Oct
xGxGA

Real Betis

20 Sep11 Oct25 Oct31 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Elche expected goals

1.28

Real Betis expected goals

1.71
1–112.0%
1–29.4%
0–17.7%
0–27.4%
2–17.0%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

12 May 2026Real Betis — Elche2–1
18 Aug 2025Elche — Real Betis1–1

Post-match analysis

Final score, verified match data and the original model prediction.

Real Betis won 2–0 away to Elche. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.21 for Elche and 2.03 for Real Betis. Real Betis generated the higher xG total. Elche scored -1.21 goals relative to xG and Real Betis scored -0.03 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Elche registered 13 shots, with 1 on target (shot accuracy: 7.7%); Real Betis recorded 18 shots, with 9 on target (shot accuracy: 50.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (46.5%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Post-match statistical review

Verified final-match data, shown only where the provider supplies both teams' values.

Elche vs Real Betis

Final score: 0–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.21 – 2.03.

Shots: 13 – 18.

Shots on target: 1 – 9.

Possession: 48.00% – 52.00%.

Corners: 9 – 8.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.

Forward result

The prediction above remained locked; this section compares it with the final result.

Model performance →
✓ Hit1X2 · predicted Away, actual Away
× MissOver 2.5 · predicted Over, actual Under
× MissBTTS · predicted Yes, actual No

More LaLiga match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.