Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

Real Sociedad host Rayo Vallecano in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Real Sociedad collected 12 points (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). Rayo Vallecano earned 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Real Sociedad have 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Rayo Vallecano have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Real Sociedad average 1.95 xG and 1.37 xGA over 4 recent matches; Rayo Vallecano average 1.50 xG and 1.32 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Real Sociedad in position 5 and Rayo Vallecano in position 10. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Real Sociedad won 1–0 against Rayo Vallecano. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.42 for Real Sociedad and 1.35 for Rayo Vallecano. Real Sociedad generated the higher xG total. Real Sociedad scored -0.42 goals relative to xG and Rayo Vallecano scored -1.35 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Real Sociedad registered 17 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 17.6%); Rayo Vallecano recorded 11 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 27.3%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (45.8%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

Final score: 1–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.42 – 1.35.

Shots: 17 – 11.

Shots on target: 3 – 3.

Possession: 51.00% – 49.00%.

Corners: 7 – 6.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.