Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

Rayo Vallecano host Elche in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Rayo Vallecano collected 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). Elche earned 6 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Rayo Vallecano have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Elche have 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Rayo Vallecano average 1.54 xG and 1.18 xGA over 5 recent matches; Elche average 0.87 xG and 1.95 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Rayo Vallecano in position 14 and Elche in position 18. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 2 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Elche won 3–0 away to Rayo Vallecano. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.52 for Rayo Vallecano and 2.57 for Elche. Elche generated the higher xG total. Rayo Vallecano scored -1.52 goals relative to xG and Elche scored +0.43 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Rayo Vallecano registered 18 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 27.8%); Elche recorded 16 shots, with 9 on target (shot accuracy: 56.2%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (52.7%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

Final score: 0–3. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.52 – 2.57.

Shots: 18 – 16.

Shots on target: 5 – 9.

Possession: 57.00% – 43.00%.

Corners: 3 – 3.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.