Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga

Deportivo Alavés host Málaga in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Deportivo Alavés collected 2 points (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). Málaga earned 2 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Deportivo Alavés have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Málaga have 0 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 4 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Deportivo Alavés average 1.04 xG and 1.50 xGA over 5 recent matches; Málaga average 0.70 xG and 1.94 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Deportivo Alavés in position 7 and Málaga in position 20. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Deportivo Alavés and Málaga drew 1–1. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.84 for Deportivo Alavés and 0.71 for Málaga. Deportivo Alavés generated the higher xG total. Deportivo Alavés scored -0.84 goals relative to xG and Málaga scored +0.29 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Deportivo Alavés registered 18 shots, with 4 on target (shot accuracy: 22.2%); Málaga recorded 7 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 42.9%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (55.9%); the actual outcome was Draw, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga

Final score: 1–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.84 – 0.71.

Shots: 18 – 7.

Shots on target: 4 – 3.

Possession: 50.00% – 50.00%.

Corners: 7 – 2.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.