Valencia vs Villarreal

Valencia host Villarreal in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Valencia collected 5 points (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). Villarreal earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Valencia have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Villarreal have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Valencia average 1.13 xG and 1.30 xGA over 5 recent matches; Villarreal average 2.49 xG and 1.31 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Valencia in position 19 and Villarreal in position 12. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Villarreal won 2–1 away to Valencia. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.13 for Valencia and 1.50 for Villarreal. Villarreal generated the higher xG total. Valencia scored -0.13 goals relative to xG and Villarreal scored +0.50 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Valencia registered 9 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 55.6%); Villarreal recorded 19 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 15.8%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (55.7%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Valencia vs Villarreal

Final score: 1–2. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.13 – 1.50.

Shots: 9 – 19.

Shots on target: 5 – 3.

Possession: 39.00% – 61.00%.

Corners: 6 – 9.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.