SmartMatchData
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LaLiga · LaLiga 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 46.5h before kickoff

Real Sociedad vs Levante UD

· Final

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Real Sociedad host Levante UD in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Real Sociedad collected 12 points (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). Levante UD earned 5 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Real Sociedad have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Levante UD have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Real Sociedad average 1.48 xG and 1.80 xGA over 4 recent matches; Levante UD average 1.67 xG and 2.74 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Real Sociedad in position 5 and Levante UD in position 10. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 2 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

50.5%Home
24.5%Draw
25.0%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 50.5%

Total goals

60.4%Over 2.5
39.6%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

61.5%Yes
38.5%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Real Sociedad 5/5, Levante UD 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

LaLiga page →
Real Sociedad
Position#5
Points16
Played9
Goal difference0
Levante UD
Position#10
Points10
Played9
Goal difference-2

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Real Sociedad

WLWWW
2.40Points / match
2.80Goals / match
1.48xG / match
1.80xGA / match
VS

Levante UD

LLDDW
1.00Points / match
1.80Goals / match
1.67xG / match
2.74xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Real Sociedad at home
W-D-L2-1-2
Points / match1.40
Goals / match1.60
xG / match1.07
Levante UD away
W-D-L0-3-2
Points / match0.60
Goals / match0.20
xG / match0.75

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Real Sociedad

07 Sep13 Sep20 Sep18 Oct
xGxGA

Levante UD

13 Sep20 Sep12 Oct21 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Real Sociedad expected goals

1.86

Levante UD expected goals

1.26
1–111.3%
2–19.6%
2–07.6%
1–07.2%
1–26.5%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Real Sociedad

18 OctWA · MálagaxG 2.44 · xGA 1.245–211 OctWH · Deportivo La CoruñaxG — · xGA —3–2
20 SepWA · ValenciaxG 2.65 · xGA 1.553–2
13 SepLH · Atlético MadridxG 0.27 · xGA 2.050–3
07 SepWA · ElchexG 0.57 · xGA 2.373–2

Levante UD

21 OctWH · Athletic ClubxG 1.97 · xGA 1.903–116 OctDA · Deportivo La CoruñaxG — · xGA —0–012 OctDH · SevillaxG 1.82 · xGA 2.203–3
20 SepLA · VillarrealxG 0.45 · xGA 4.271–3
13 SepLH · BarcelonaxG 2.42 · xGA 2.582–4

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

04 Apr 2026Real Sociedad — Levante UD2–0
20 Dec 2025Levante UD — Real Sociedad1–1

Post-match analysis

Final score, verified match data and the original model prediction.

Real Sociedad won 1–0 against Levante UD. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 2.45 for Real Sociedad and 0.64 for Levante UD. Real Sociedad generated the higher xG total. Real Sociedad scored -1.45 goals relative to xG and Levante UD scored -0.64 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Real Sociedad registered 17 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 17.6%); Levante UD recorded 6 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 33.3%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (50.5%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Post-match statistical review

Verified final-match data, shown only where the provider supplies both teams' values.

Real Sociedad vs Levante UD

Final score: 1–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 2.45 – 0.64.

Shots: 17 – 6.

Shots on target: 3 – 2.

Possession: 62.00% – 38.00%.

Corners: 2 – 3.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.

Forward result

The prediction above remained locked; this section compares it with the final result.

Model performance →
✓ Hit1X2 · predicted Home, actual Home
× MissOver 2.5 · predicted Over, actual Under
× MissBTTS · predicted Yes, actual No

More LaLiga match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.