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LaLiga · LaLiga 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 46.0h before kickoff

Deportivo La Coruña vs Levante UD

· Final

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Deportivo La Coruña host Levante UD in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Deportivo La Coruña collected 5 points (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). Levante UD earned 5 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Deportivo La Coruña have 1 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in their last 4 recorded home matches. On the road, Levante UD have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Deportivo La Coruña average 0.98 xG and 0.88 xGA over 4 recent matches; Levante UD average 1.69 xG and 2.51 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Deportivo La Coruña in position 8 and Levante UD in position 17. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

44.1%Home
27.5%Draw
28.4%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 44.1%

Total goals

50.9%Over 2.5
49.1%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

55.4%Yes
44.6%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Deportivo La Coruña 5/5, Levante UD 5/5; home/away splits 4/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

LaLiga page →
Deportivo La Coruña
Position#8
Points10
Played8
Goal difference+1
Levante UD
Position#17
Points6
Played7
Goal difference-4

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Deportivo La Coruña

WDLDL
1.00Points / match
1.40Goals / match
0.98xG / match
0.88xGA / match
VS

Levante UD

WDLLD
1.00Points / match
2.20Goals / match
1.69xG / match
2.51xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Deportivo La Coruña at home
W-D-L1-2-1
Points / match1.25
Goals / match1.25
xG / match1.00
Levante UD away
W-D-L0-2-3
Points / match0.40
Goals / match0.40
xG / match1.05

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Deportivo La Coruña

05 Sep13 Sep16 Sep20 Sep
xGxGA

Levante UD

29 Aug06 Sep13 Sep20 Sep12 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Deportivo La Coruña expected goals

1.53

Levante UD expected goals

1.18
1–113.1%
2–19.2%
1–09.1%
2–07.8%
0–07.7%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Deportivo La Coruña

11 OctLA · Real SociedadxG — · xGA —2–3
20 SepDH · Real BetisxG 2.09 · xGA 0.801–1
16 SepLH · SevillaxG 0.14 · xGA 0.730–1
13 SepDA · GetafexG 0.87 · xGA 0.781–1
05 SepWA · VillarrealxG 0.83 · xGA 1.203–2

Levante UD

12 OctDH · SevillaxG 1.82 · xGA 2.203–3
20 SepLA · VillarrealxG 0.45 · xGA 4.271–3
13 SepLH · BarcelonaxG 2.42 · xGA 2.582–4
06 SepDA · MálagaxG 0.98 · xGA 1.590–0
29 AugWH · Real BetisxG 2.76 · xGA 1.925–2

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

Not enough prior league meetings in the database to show a meaningful head-to-head section.

Post-match analysis

Final score, verified match data and the original model prediction.

Deportivo La Coruña and Levante UD drew 0–0. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.11 for Deportivo La Coruña and 0.83 for Levante UD. Deportivo La Coruña generated the higher xG total. Deportivo La Coruña scored -1.11 goals relative to xG and Levante UD scored -0.83 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Deportivo La Coruña registered 13 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 38.5%); Levante UD recorded 11 shots, with 4 on target (shot accuracy: 36.4%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (44.1%); the actual outcome was Draw, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Post-match statistical review

Verified final-match data, shown only where the provider supplies both teams' values.

Deportivo La Coruña vs Levante UD

Final score: 0–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.11 – 0.83.

Shots: 13 – 11.

Shots on target: 5 – 4.

Possession: 46.00% – 54.00%.

Corners: 3 – 5.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.

Forward result

The prediction above remained locked; this section compares it with the final result.

Model performance →
× Miss1X2 · predicted Home, actual Draw
× MissOver 2.5 · predicted Over, actual Under
× MissBTTS · predicted Yes, actual No

More LaLiga match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.