Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo

Rayo Vallecano host Celta Vigo in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Rayo Vallecano collected 5 points (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). Celta Vigo earned 7 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Rayo Vallecano have 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Celta Vigo have 0 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Rayo Vallecano average 1.52 xG and 1.60 xGA over 5 recent matches; Celta Vigo average 1.23 xG and 0.83 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Rayo Vallecano in position 16 and Celta Vigo in position 13. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Rayo Vallecano won 3–0 against Celta Vigo. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.10 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.24 for Celta Vigo. Celta Vigo generated the higher xG total. Rayo Vallecano scored +1.90 goals relative to xG and Celta Vigo scored -1.24 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Rayo Vallecano registered 14 shots, with 8 on target (shot accuracy: 57.1%); Celta Vigo recorded 11 shots, with 0 on target (shot accuracy: 0.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (41.1%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo

Final score: 3–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.10 – 1.24.

Shots: 14 – 11.

Shots on target: 8 – 0.

Possession: 53.00% – 47.00%.

Corners: 4 – 3.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.