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Bundesliga · Bundesliga 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 315.7h before kickoff

FC Augsburg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

FC Augsburg host 1. FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, FC Augsburg collected 2 points (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). 1. FSV Mainz 05 earned 3 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, FC Augsburg have 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, FC Augsburg average 2.23 xG and 2.61 xGA over 5 recent matches; 1. FSV Mainz 05 average 1.65 xG and 1.66 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places FC Augsburg in position 14 and 1. FSV Mainz 05 in position 12. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

36.3%Home
23.3%Draw
40.4%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 40.4%

Total goals

70.6%Over 2.5
29.4%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

71.1%Yes
28.9%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches FC Augsburg 5/5, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Bundesliga page →
FC Augsburg
Position#14
Points9
Played9
Goal difference0
1. FSV Mainz 05
Position#12
Points10
Played9
Goal difference-1

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

FC Augsburg

DLDLL
0.40Points / match
1.80Goals / match
2.23xG / match
2.61xGA / match
VS

1. FSV Mainz 05

LWLLL
0.60Points / match
1.60Goals / match
1.65xG / match
1.66xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

FC Augsburg at home
W-D-L1-3-1
Points / match1.20
Goals / match1.80
xG / match2.03
1. FSV Mainz 05 away
W-D-L4-0-1
Points / match2.40
Goals / match2.60
xG / match2.48

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

FC Augsburg

10 Oct17 Oct24 Oct31 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

1. FSV Mainz 05

10 Oct17 Oct24 Oct30 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

FC Augsburg expected goals

1.77

1. FSV Mainz 05 expected goals

1.88
1–19.4%
1–28.1%
2–17.7%
2–27.2%
1–35.1%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

07 Feb 20261. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Augsburg2–0
20 Sep 2025FC Augsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 051–4
08 Feb 20251. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Augsburg0–0
20 Sep 2024FC Augsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 052–3
17 Feb 20241. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Augsburg1–0

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League page →

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