FC Augsburg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Pre-match analysis and preview
Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.
FC Augsburg host 1. FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.
Across their last 5 recorded league matches, FC Augsburg collected 2 points (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). 1. FSV Mainz 05 earned 3 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.
At home, FC Augsburg have 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.
Where full-quality xG is available, FC Augsburg average 2.23 xG and 2.61 xGA over 5 recent matches; 1. FSV Mainz 05 average 1.65 xG and 1.66 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.
At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places FC Augsburg in position 14 and 1. FSV Mainz 05 in position 12. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.
The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.
This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.
Model prediction
Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.
1X2
Total goals
Both teams to score
Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches FC Augsburg 5/5, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.
Pre-match league context
Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.
Recent form comparison
Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.
FC Augsburg
1. FSV Mainz 05
Home / away form
Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.
xG trends
Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.
FC Augsburg
1. FSV Mainz 05
Expected goals & scorelines
Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.
FC Augsburg expected goals
1. FSV Mainz 05 expected goals
Recent matches
The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.
FC Augsburg
07 NovLA · RB LeipzigxG 1.88 · xGA 1.642–531 OctLH · SC FreiburgxG 1.15 · xGA 1.391–224 OctDH · 1. FC Union BerlinxG 1.82 · xGA 1.181–117 OctLA · SV 07 ElversbergxG 3.92 · xGA 3.783–41. FSV Mainz 05
07 NovLH · FC Bayern MünchenxG 0.60 · xGA 2.671–230 OctLA · SV 07 ElversbergxG 1.15 · xGA 0.931–424 OctLH · SV Werder BremenxG 1.69 · xGA 2.562–317 OctWA · FC Schalke 04xG 1.94 · xGA 0.431–0Head to head
Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.
More Bundesliga match analysis
Nearby locked predictions from the same season.
Continue exploring
Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.