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LaLiga · LaLiga 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 316.4h before kickoff

Racing de Santander vs Real Sociedad

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Racing de Santander host Real Sociedad in LaLiga. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Racing de Santander collected 7 points (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). Real Sociedad earned 12 points from 5 matches (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Racing de Santander have 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Real Sociedad have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Racing de Santander average 1.82 xG and 1.96 xGA over 4 recent matches; Real Sociedad average 1.93 xG and 1.54 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Racing de Santander in position 11 and Real Sociedad in position 5. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

29.8%Home
24.8%Draw
45.4%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 45.4%

Total goals

62.3%Over 2.5
37.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

64.2%Yes
35.8%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Racing de Santander 5/5, Real Sociedad 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

LaLiga page →
Racing de Santander
Position#11
Points14
Played12
Goal difference-12
Real Sociedad
Position#5
Points22
Played12
Goal difference+1

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Racing de Santander

DLWLW
1.40Points / match
1.20Goals / match
1.82xG / match
1.96xGA / match
VS

Real Sociedad

WWWLW
2.40Points / match
2.20Goals / match
1.93xG / match
1.54xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Racing de Santander at home
W-D-L3-1-1
Points / match2.00
Goals / match1.80
xG / match1.72
Real Sociedad away
W-D-L3-0-2
Points / match1.80
Goals / match2.60
xG / match1.53

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Racing de Santander

11 Oct24 Oct01 Nov07 Nov
xGxGA

Real Sociedad

18 Oct25 Oct01 Nov08 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Racing de Santander expected goals

1.42

Real Sociedad expected goals

1.79
1–111.2%
1–29.2%
2–17.3%
2–26.5%
0–26.4%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

Not enough prior league meetings in the database to show a meaningful head-to-head section.

More LaLiga match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.