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Ligue 1 · Ligue 1 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 296.9h before kickoff

AS Monaco vs Auxerre

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

AS Monaco host Auxerre in Ligue 1. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, AS Monaco collected 3 points (0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses). Auxerre earned 4 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, AS Monaco have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Auxerre have 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, AS Monaco average 1.10 xG and 1.47 xGA over 5 recent matches; Auxerre average 1.21 xG and 1.66 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places AS Monaco in position 6 and Auxerre in position 16. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 4 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

48.1%Home
26.7%Draw
25.2%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 48.1%

Total goals

52.0%Over 2.5
48.0%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

55.4%Yes
44.6%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches AS Monaco 5/5, Auxerre 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Ligue 1 page →
AS Monaco
Position#6
Points16
Played10
Goal difference+2
Auxerre
Position#16
Points10
Played10
Goal difference-9

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

AS Monaco

DLDLD
0.60Points / match
1.00Goals / match
1.10xG / match
1.47xGA / match
VS

Auxerre

LWDLL
0.80Points / match
1.20Goals / match
1.21xG / match
1.66xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

AS Monaco at home
W-D-L2-2-1
Points / match1.60
Goals / match1.40
xG / match1.44
Auxerre away
W-D-L1-0-4
Points / match0.60
Goals / match1.60
xG / match1.42

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

AS Monaco

10 Oct18 Oct25 Oct01 Nov08 Nov
xGxGA

Auxerre

18 Oct25 Oct01 Nov07 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

AS Monaco expected goals

1.63

Auxerre expected goals

1.13
1–112.7%
2–19.5%
1–09.3%
2–08.5%
0–07.4%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

19 Apr 2026AS Monaco — Auxerre2–2
13 Sep 2025Auxerre — AS Monaco1–2
01 Feb 2025AS Monaco — Auxerre4–2
14 Sep 2024Auxerre — AS Monaco0–3

More Ligue 1 match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.