Le Havre vs Auxerre

Le Havre host Auxerre in Ligue 1. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Le Havre collected 2 points (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). Auxerre earned 6 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Le Havre have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Auxerre have 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Le Havre average 1.53 xG and 1.57 xGA over 5 recent matches; Auxerre average 1.30 xG and 1.46 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Le Havre in position 18 and Auxerre in position 15. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 4 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Auxerre won 3–1 away to Le Havre. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.40 for Le Havre and 2.70 for Auxerre. Auxerre generated the higher xG total. Le Havre scored -0.40 goals relative to xG and Auxerre scored +0.30 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Le Havre registered 15 shots, with 6 on target (shot accuracy: 40.0%); Auxerre recorded 13 shots, with 6 on target (shot accuracy: 46.2%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (40.5%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Le Havre vs Auxerre

Final score: 1–3. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.40 – 2.70.

Shots: 15 – 13.

Shots on target: 6 – 6.

Possession: 52.00% – 48.00%.

Corners: 7 – 4.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.