Lille vs Le Havre

Lille host Le Havre in Ligue 1. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Lille collected 10 points (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). Le Havre earned 2 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Lille have 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Le Havre have 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Lille average 1.37 xG and 1.77 xGA over 5 recent matches; Le Havre average 1.39 xG and 1.61 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Lille in position 4 and Le Havre in position 18. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Lille won 1–0 against Le Havre. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.19 for Lille and 1.30 for Le Havre. Le Havre generated the higher xG total. Lille scored -0.19 goals relative to xG and Le Havre scored -1.30 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Lille registered 5 shots, with 1 on target (shot accuracy: 20.0%); Le Havre recorded 17 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 11.8%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (45.9%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Lille vs Le Havre

Final score: 1–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.19 – 1.30.

Shots: 5 – 17.

Shots on target: 1 – 2.

Possession: 47.00% – 53.00%.

Corners: 4 – 5.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.