Auxerre vs Paris FC

Auxerre host Paris FC in Ligue 1. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Auxerre collected 10 points (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). Paris FC earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Auxerre have 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Paris FC have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Auxerre average 1.57 xG and 1.06 xGA over 4 recent matches; Paris FC average 1.27 xG and 1.14 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Auxerre in position 12 and Paris FC in position 6. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 2 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Paris FC won 1–0 away to Auxerre. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 0.81 for Auxerre and 0.76 for Paris FC. Auxerre generated the higher xG total. Auxerre scored -0.81 goals relative to xG and Paris FC scored +0.24 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Auxerre registered 7 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 28.6%); Paris FC recorded 10 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 30.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (38.2%); the actual outcome was Away, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Auxerre vs Paris FC

Final score: 0–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 0.81 – 0.76.

Shots: 7 – 10.

Shots on target: 2 – 3.

Possession: 35.00% – 65.00%.

Corners: 1 – 5.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.