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Ligue 1 · Ligue 1 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 296.9h before kickoff

Lille vs Olympique Lyonnais

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Lille host Olympique Lyonnais in Ligue 1. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Lille collected 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). Olympique Lyonnais earned 6 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Lille have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Olympique Lyonnais have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Lille average 1.23 xG and 1.19 xGA over 5 recent matches; Olympique Lyonnais average 1.18 xG and 1.20 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Lille in position 1 and Olympique Lyonnais in position 4. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

43.0%Home
28.3%Draw
28.6%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 43.0%

Total goals

47.8%Over 2.5
52.2%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

53.1%Yes
46.9%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Lille 5/5, Olympique Lyonnais 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Ligue 1 page →
Lille
Position#1
Points21
Played10
Goal difference+7
Olympique Lyonnais
Position#4
Points17
Played10
Goal difference+6

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Lille

WDDWW
2.20Points / match
1.20Goals / match
1.23xG / match
1.19xGA / match
VS

Olympique Lyonnais

LWLWL
1.20Points / match
1.00Goals / match
1.18xG / match
1.20xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Lille at home
W-D-L3-2-0
Points / match2.20
Goals / match1.40
xG / match1.58
Olympique Lyonnais away
W-D-L1-1-3
Points / match0.80
Goals / match0.60
xG / match0.70

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Lille

10 Oct17 Oct25 Oct30 Oct08 Nov
xGxGA

Olympique Lyonnais

09 Oct18 Oct26 Oct01 Nov08 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Lille expected goals

1.45

Olympique Lyonnais expected goals

1.14
1–113.5%
1–09.8%
2–19.0%
0–08.6%
2–07.9%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

01 Feb 2026Olympique Lyonnais — Lille1–0
28 Sep 2025Lille — Olympique Lyonnais0–1
05 Apr 2025Olympique Lyonnais — Lille2–1
01 Nov 2024Lille — Olympique Lyonnais1–1
06 May 2024Lille — Olympique Lyonnais3–4

More Ligue 1 match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

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