Lille vs Stade Brestois

Lille host Stade Brestois in Ligue 1. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Lille collected 10 points (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). Stade Brestois earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Lille have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Stade Brestois have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Lille average 1.36 xG and 1.63 xGA over 5 recent matches; Stade Brestois average 2.18 xG and 1.31 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Lille in position 2 and Stade Brestois in position 7. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Lille and Stade Brestois drew 1–1. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 2.17 for Lille and 0.78 for Stade Brestois. Lille generated the higher xG total. Lille scored -1.17 goals relative to xG and Stade Brestois scored +0.22 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Lille registered 17 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 29.4%); Stade Brestois recorded 8 shots, with 2 on target (shot accuracy: 25.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (41.4%); the actual outcome was Draw, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Lille vs Stade Brestois

Final score: 1–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 2.17 – 0.78.

Shots: 17 – 8.

Shots on target: 5 – 2.

Possession: 67.00% – 33.00%.

Corners: 5 – 2.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.