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CONCACAF Nations League · CONCACAF Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 95.9h before kickoff

Sint Maarten vs French Guiana

🇸🇽 Sint Maarten

🇬🇫 French Guiana

Sat, 14 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Sint Maarten host French Guiana in CONCACAF Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Sint Maarten collected 3 points (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). French Guiana earned 10 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Sint Maarten have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, French Guiana have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

10.5%Home

18.2%Draw

71.3%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 71.3%

Total goals

58.5%Over 2.5

41.5%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

51.5%Yes

48.5%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

CONCACAF Nations League page →

Sint Maarten

No pre-match table context available.

French Guiana

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Sint Maarten

WLLLL

0.60Points / match

0.60Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

French Guiana

DLWWW

2.00Points / match

1.40Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Sint Maarten at home

W-D-L2-0-3

Points / match1.20

Goals / match1.40

xG / match—

French Guiana away

W-D-L1-1-3

Points / match0.80

Goals / match1.20

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Sint Maarten.

Not enough full-quality xG history for French Guiana.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Sint Maarten expected goals

0.82

French Guiana expected goals

2.41

0–211.5%

1–29.4%

0–39.2%

0–18.8%

1–18.5%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.