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CONCACAF Nations League · CONCACAF Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 95.9h before kickoff

Jamaica vs Mexico

🇯🇲 Jamaica

🇲🇽 Mexico

Sun, 15 Nov 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Jamaica host Mexico in CONCACAF Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Jamaica collected 7 points (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). Mexico earned 9 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Jamaica have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Mexico have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

The database contains 2 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

26.2%Home

23.1%Draw

50.7%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 50.7%

Total goals

46.6%Over 2.5

53.4%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

53.7%Yes

46.3%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

CONCACAF Nations League page →

Jamaica

No pre-match table context available.

Mexico

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Jamaica

LWLWD

1.40Points / match

1.60Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Mexico

LLWWW

1.80Points / match

1.60Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Jamaica at home

W-D-L1-2-2

Points / match1.00

Goals / match0.60

xG / match—

Mexico away

W-D-L2-0-3

Points / match1.20

Goals / match1.00

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Jamaica.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Mexico.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Jamaica expected goals

1.21

Mexico expected goals

1.44

1–113.4%

0–19.1%

1–28.9%

0–08.2%

2–17.4%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.