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CONCACAF Nations League · CONCACAF Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 94.4h before kickoff

Haiti vs USA

🇭🇹 Haiti

🇺🇸 USA

Sat, 14 Nov 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Haiti host USA in CONCACAF Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Haiti collected 12 points (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). USA earned 9 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Haiti have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, USA have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

19.1%Home

21.6%Draw

59.3%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 59.3%

Total goals

63.0%Over 2.5

37.0%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

53.1%Yes

46.9%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

CONCACAF Nations League page →

Haiti

No pre-match table context available.

USA

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Haiti

WWWWL

2.40Points / match

2.40Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

USA

WWWLL

1.80Points / match

1.60Goals / match

—xG / match

—xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Haiti at home

W-D-L5-0-0

Points / match3.00

Goals / match3.80

xG / match—

USA away

W-D-L3-0-2

Points / match1.80

Goals / match2.40

xG / match—

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Not enough full-quality xG history for Haiti.

Not enough full-quality xG history for USA.

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Haiti expected goals

1.13

USA expected goals

1.97

1–110.9%

1–29.9%

0–28.7%

0–18.0%

1–36.5%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.